Mulligans fantasy forecast: Week 13
Observer sports writer
With Week 13 being the last week of the regular season for the majority of fantasy leagues I thought now would be a good time to look back at some preseason predictions I made and see how they turned out. I’m probably going to regret doing this but will do it anyway for humility’s sake. So here now are some of my preseason predictions from the Fan’s ’08 Playbook:
Matt Ryan “isn’t going to make a ton of noise due to the fact that his primary targets are Roddy White and Michael Jenkins but he could prove to be a solid bye week fill in depending on the match up.” I think it’s safe to say that both Ryan and White have surpassed everybody’s preseason predictions, including mine. Chalk this one up as a miss.
“It’s not unreasonable to think Eddie Royal could be this year’s Dwayne Bowe, though I think he’ll fall just a bit short of Bowe’s rookie season numbers.” Royal is on pace for just over 1,000 yards receiving while Bowe came up with 995 in his rookie season. I may have underestimated Royal a bit, but at least I had him on the radar. I’ll chalk this one up as a hit.
Marshawn Lynch “is one of the few big time running backs out there that aren’t likely to have to split carries with another back this season. More carries means more yards and more points for you. Not too difficult to figure out. Draft Lynch ahead of Clinton Portis but not ahead of Brian Westbrook.” Well, Portis is having an MVP-type season and Lynch is on pace to fall just short of the 1,115 yards he rushed for as a rookie. In fact, he’s broken the 100 yard mark just once this season. Miss.
“After a disappointing 2007, look for Frank Gore to approach top-3 running back status in PPR leagues when all is said and done in ’08.” Gore currently ranks as the seventh best RB in my PPR league, but has some easy match ups to finish out the season. He could break the top three as he’s only 12 points behind the third ranked RB. I’m saying Gore comes up big in fantasy playoffs and this will be a hit by the time the season is over.
“I just don’t think there’s any way possible that Ryan Grant will have a better season than some of the names I’ve seen him ranked ahead of. He’ll still be a good fantasy back but he won’t be RB1 material as some are suggesting. Take him ahead of Willie Parker but not ahead of Larry Johnson.” Entering last Monday night’s game against the Saints, Grant was the 28th ranked RB in standard scoring leagues. Not RB1 material. Hit.
I also hit on Brett Favre, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr. and Julius Jones while missing on the likes of Devin Hester, Darren McFadden, Jeremy Shockey and JaMarcus Russell. Overall, I think I did pretty well. After all, if I knew exactly how the entire season was going to play out before it happened I’d be making millions in Vegas.
Injury news
Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: Delhomme reportedly complained about a sore elbow after the Panthers’ game against the Falcons in which he went 21-35 for 295 yards and a touchdown. The injury has since been reported as a mere cut and Delhomme should be fine to play this week against the Packers.
Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: Bulger left the Rams game against the Bears last week after apparently suffering a concussion. He will reportedly undergo some tests this week to make sure it’s nothing serious and it appears likely that he’ll start this week against the Dolphins.
Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Burress attempted to play in last week’s game against the Cardinals but didn’t last very long before aggravating his hamstring injury. As of late Monday night, it’s unknown whether he’ll be ready or even practice before this week’s game against the Redskins. He’s likely to be a game time decision again on Sunday.
Greg Camarillo, WR, Dolphins: Camarillo will reportedly miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury in last week’s game against the Patriots. The exact injury has not yet been specified. Davone Bess and Ernest Wilford will likely see more balls thrown their way but neither is worth picking up.
Good match-up
Tony Romo vs. Seattle pass defense: Romo and the Cowboys offense found their rhythm against the 49ers (as many teams do) last week. Romo threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in just his second game back from injury and will get another great match up this week when the Seattle Seahawks come to Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.
The Seahawks are giving up over 259 passing yards per game this season. The only team worse in that category in the entire NFL is the San Diego Chargers. I wouldn’t expect the Seahawks to all of a sudden figure out how to cover wide receivers when they visit Romo and Terrell Owens in Dallas so you should start Romo this week (not that you would actually bench him anyway) and watch the points pile up.
Not so good match-up
Eli Manning vs. Redskins pass defense: Manning had himself quite a game last week, throwing for 240 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals despite not having Plaxico Burress for the majority of the game. But Peyton’s little brother gets a much more difficult match up this week against the Washington Redskins.
The ‘Skins are allowing just under 183 passing yards per game, good for fifth best in the league. Compare that to the 17th ranked Cardinals defense which is allowing over 212 yards per game through the air. Manning will be facing a tough defense and may also have to do it without Burress again. Doesn’t sound like a recipe for a lot of success.
Waiver wire watch
Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots: Cassel threw for 400 yards for the second straight week which is impressive because it doesn’t happen that often. In fact, he’s just the fifth quarterback to do it since 1970. So yeah, he’s on fire. He gets a much tougher match up against the Steelers this week but follows that up with a cupcake against the Seahawks. He’s probably not available in your league at this point but if by some chance he is scoop him up and stash him away for that Seattle match up, especially if you’re in a league that starts two QBs.
Trent Edwards, QB, Bills: Many fantasy owners dropped Edwards after his stinker against the Browns two weeks ago, his second poor performance in a row and one of several this season. But those who held onto him were rewarded in a big way last week when Edwards threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two more touchdowns. Edwards has very favorable match ups from here on through Week 16 so and is worth picking for the fantasy playoffs.
Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons: Douglas blindsided the Panthers this week as he hauled in four catches for 92 yards and a rushing touchdown. He also returned a punt for a touchdown. The receptions were his first since Week 9 and he has just 16 total on the season now so I’m not sure that I’d get carried away and pick him up but he does have two great match ups in the next two weeks against the Chargers and the Saints.
Kevin Boss, TE, Giants: Giants QB Eli Manning has been looking Boss’s way more often recently and Boss’s four touchdown catches since Week 8 is proof of that. His 48 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals last week was good enough to give him the number two scoring week amongst tight ends in standard scoring leagues. Furthermore, he has finished with a top five ranking among tight ends every week since Week 7 with the exception of Week 11 against the Ravens. Needless to say, he’s become quite valuable.
Kyle Mulligan is a contributing sports writer for the Observer. He welcomes your fantasy predictions and feedback. He can be reached at kjmulli@gmail.com.