Real Estate: Predictions by the numbers on housing market
I am going to go out on a limb and publicize my predictions for the housing market for 2010. This is just my opinion, which is the only one I can give, and is based on my experience in the Real Estate Market as an investor and Realtor, and the examination of current trends. My predictions are for the Fort Myers Beach and Fort Myers area only.
What is the prediction for the median home price? I predict that we will finally see home prices stabilize in 2010, but not until the later part of the year. Foreclosures and short sales will continue to force declining home prices because the majority of sales today are in these two categories. The key here is how many new foreclosures and short sales there are throughout the year. Fort Myers Beach has not seen the level of foreclosures or short sales as other areas, which is why I predict that by year end you should see some stabilization; however we will not see any significant recovery in prices for probably 24 months. The median home price of a condo on Fort Myers Beach dropped from $590,000 to $578,000 in December 2009.
As Adjustable Rate Mortgages rates change, nearly 5 percent of these homeowners/borrowers who are current on the note during the adjustment of the note default in the following month.
What will home sales look like for the remainder of the year? I predict that 2010 will be a buyer’s market juiced by the extension of the tax credit, foreclosures and short-sales, and the low interest rates. I predict that the interest rates will continue to stay low throughout the year simply because it will continue to drive the recovery of the economy. Many of the Adjustable Rate Mortgages that were scheduled to reset this spring have been postponed to 2012. This is great for now, but if the job situation does not change for many of these home owners this will only postpone potential foreclosures to 2012. I also predict that the government will not pass any more housing incentives due to the expense of it.
How will the mid-term election impact the housing market? My opinion is that elections do impact the housing market. With the economy slowly recovering since 2008 these upcoming elections will be important for the housing market more than ever.
I predict that we are on the road to recovery. As the short-sales and foreclosures continue to impact price short term, the inventory is being turned and will continue to be less of the sale action over the next 12 months. As foreclosure and short-sale inventory begins to deplete, you will begin to recognize stability in price and a reduction of the days on market. I believe that we are a decade away from the prices of 2004 and 2005, but as we have seen historically, the market does recover and becomes stronger. A key element of real estate value is location and I think that the Southwest Florida area and specifically Fort Myers Beach is an excellent desirable location!
Jason M. Jakus is a licensed realtor for Leisure American Realty, a full service Real Estate and Property Management company serving the beaches and surrounding areas of Lee County. Their office is located at 2450 Estero Blvd., Fort Myers Beach FL 33931. For more information on this or any other real estate or property management subject contact Jason at 463-3178 or email RealtyInfo@LeisureAmerican.com.