Mulligan’s Fantasy Football Forecast, Week 11
In the past few weeks, big names like Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis have suffered concussions that have caused them to miss playing time. Westbrook himself has suffered two concussions in a matter of four weeks. Now, maybe back in the day the “cure” for a concussion was some Tylenol and then you got back out onto the football field, but we’re not in the Stone Age anymore.
These days, studies upon studies have shown the true damage that a concussion causes in a person’s brain. A few concussions in a short period of time, as many, many players like Westbrook have suffered, can cause serious brain damage, called chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE. Let’s put it this way; it’s not something that can be cured with Tylenol.
Teams around the NFL are being far more cautious with concussions now, and it’s about time. Eagles coach Andy Reid has said that football is secondary right now, when talking about Westbrook’s playing status and it looks like Portis will miss at least another game or two after sitting out last week’s game against Denver because of a concussion suffered in the prior week’s game. When dealing with concussions, we’re no longer dealing with a headache that will cause you to briefly lose consciousness. We’re dealing with long-term mental health, and when it comes to that football IS secondary.
GOOD MATCH UPS
Ricky Williams vs. Panthers defense: We may see a lot less of the wildcat this week from the Dolphins with Ronnie Brown expected to miss Thursday’s game against the Panthers with a foot injury. That means Ricky Williams will lead one of the best running attacks in the NFL against a Carolina defense that is shaky at times against the run. In fact, Carolina is allowing opposing runners to gain 4.6 yards per carry which ties them for the fourth worst defensive YPC average in the league. Only the Bills, Bucs, Browns, Lions and Texans give up more yards per run. That’s never good company to be in. Ricky could have a huge night on Thursday.
Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson vs. Titans defense: You might get tired of me picking on the Titans defense almost every week, but NFL teams sure don’t get tired of picking on them. If you were to say that the Tennessee pass defense is the worst in the NFL you wouldn’t get an argument out of me. Only the Lions are allowing more passing yards per game (271 to the Titans 270). And if you’re familiar with the Texans at all, you know they’re at their best offensively when Matt Schaub is throwing the ball around the field. Only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have thrown for more passing yards this season than Schaub. The recipient of a large chunk of those yards? Yup, Andre Johnson. Expect big points from this duo on Sunday.
NOT SO GOOD MATCH UPS
Ryan Grant vs. 49ers defense: The 49ers defense has gone under the radar it seems for most of this season and you might be able to say the same for Ryan Grant. After all, the Niners have the NFL’s third best run defense, allowing just 87.7 yards per game on the ground, and Grant is averaging more fantasy points per game than backs like Pierre Thomas who get more recognition. I think the Niners defense wins this battle however. From a yards per carry standpoint, San Francisco is the best run defense in the league as they give up just 3.3 per touch. That’s ridiculously good in case you weren’t sure. There’s a chance Grant could be effective in the passing game for those of you in PPR leagues but he hasn’t really shown much of that part of his game this season. If you’re deep at RB, I’d bench Grant in favor of someone like Ricky Williams.
Randy Moss vs. Jets defense: Moss absolutely dominated the Colts defense last week, grabbing nine passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in his best performance to date of 2009. This week is going to be a much different story however as Darrelle Revis and the Jets defense come to town. Moss managed to gain just 24 yards on four catches when he squared off against Revis in Week 2 and I wouldn’t expect him to get much more than that this time around. And before you say that was because he and Brady weren’t on the same page yet I’ll have you know that Moss gained 141 yards in Week 1 and 116 in Week 3, so that definitely wasn’t it. Revis, with occasional help from the New York safeties, is just that good and we should all know that by now.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH
Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: I pretty much wrote off Beanie Wells as a fantasy option for the rest of this season a few weeks ago and, of course, he broke out last week with 85 yards rushing and two touchdowns. He took more carries than Tim Hightower which is a great sign for those of you who’ve held on to Beanie for this long. He gets a great match up this week against the Rams and there’s a chance that Wells will be a reliable fantasy option for the rest of the season with games against weaker defenses like the Rams (twice) and Lions still on the Cardinals’ schedule.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Larry Johnson went off the deep end again and the Chiefs finally had enough of his shenanigans which means Jamaal Charles is now the man in Kansas City. And he’s already produced the Chiefs’ first 100-yard rusher this season as he ran for 103 yards and a score against the Raiders last week. The road to the end zone is much tougher this week for him, however, as the Chiefs host the Steelers. Charles looks like he could make a decent flex play for your fantasy playoffs though with games against some weaker run defenses like Buffalo still upcoming.
Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks: It’s been reported that Julius Jones experienced bleeding in his lungs while in the hospital after Sunday’s game against the Cardinals and it seems highly unlikely that he will play this week against Minnesota. In Jones’ absence against the Cardinals, backup Justin Forsett ran for 123 yards and a touchdown and it looks as if he’ll make his first career start this week against the Vikings. While that match up against Minnesota isn’t a good one on paper for Forsett, he is an asset in the passing game and should make for a decent flex play this week in PPR leagues.
Ladell Betts, RB, Redskins: Like Charles, Betts made the most of his first start this season, rumbling for 114 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. Clinton Portis could be out for a few more weeks with a concussion so it’s likely that Betts will see a few more starts. He draws Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans in his next three contests.
Donnie Avery, WR, Rams: Speaking of concussions and headaches, Donnie Avery might give you one just thinking about him. The Rams wide receiver hauled in four catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints last week in his latest tease of fantasy owners. His two best games this season have come against the two best teams in the NFC Minnesota and New Orleans while in pretty much every other game he has stun k it up. He’s far too inconsistent to have on a fantasy team in my opinion so try not to get suckered in by picking him up and using him this week against Arizona.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills: Evans isn’t much more reliable than Avery is but he has caught four touchdowns in his last four games including two last week against Tennessee. The Bills lack of consistency from the quarterback position is what hurts Evans and teammate Terrell Owens which makes it difficult to say when Evans is poised to have a good game. I don’t really like his matchup this week against Jacksonville but I do like him in Week 12 against Miami.
Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys: Williams has really picked up his production in the last two games and had his best game of the season from a fantasy standpoint last week against Green Bay. I say from a fantasy standpoint because he coughed up a lousy fumble and had a Tony Romo pass go right through his hands and hit him in the facemask. Those are two plays you can be sure the Cowboys aren’t too happy about, especially since they were dominated by the Packers. But you should keep an eye on Williams (I would pick him up if available) because he’s got the Redskins and the Raiders in his next two games, games where he should be able to produce.
Kyle Mulligan is a contributing sports writer for the Observer. He welcomes your feedback and can be reached at kjmulli@gmail.com.