Mulligan’s Fantasy Football Forecast, Week 10
We’re getting down to the end of the regular season in those fantasy football leagues that have playoffs which means owners of borderline playoff teams may start to feel the heat in the coming weeks. It’s important during this part of the season not to panic and make a desperate trade that may not be the best fit for your team for the rest of this season.
I know this sounds simple but in 99 percent of trades you want to be getting the best player, no matter who else is involved in the deal. A lot of times owners think that the way to fill some holes on their roster is to trade away their best player for a couple of pretty good, but lesser players. Now that bye weeks are all but over, your bench doesn’t matter as much, so having some good players on your bench does nothing for you (unless of course you suffer an injury). Instead, you should be analyzing the upcoming match ups of players who haven’t lived up to expectations this season and try to trade for those guys at a bargain price.
Trading away your best players to fill gaps just doesn’t work in fantasy football. This isn’t Major League Baseball you can’t strip down your roster to build for the future and go with young guys from the minor leagues for the rest of the season (unless you’re in a dynasty league). You have this season and this season alone to make your team a winner. Do yourself a favor and hold onto your best players while trying to fill those gaps by trading other players or hitting the waiver wire. You can thank me later.
GOOD MATCH UPS
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart vs. Falcons defense: Williams was able to rack up big yardage against the Saints last week but, oddly, Stewart wasn’t able to get anything going. This week the Panthers draw the Atlanta Falcons, owners of the league’s 24th ranked run defense. Carolina shouldn’t have much of a problem running the ball on Atlanta and Williams will do what he always does but I would also expect a good game out of Stewart as well. Good enough that he’s at least an option at your RB2 or flex spot.
Brett Favre vs. Lions defense: This one is simple on paper. Brett Favre with two weeks to prepare for the NFL’s second worst pass defense? I’ll take Favre, thanks. The Lions are allowing teams to throw for 263 yards per game on them. The Vikings are coming off a bye which means they’ve had two weeks to study all that the Lions do (or don’t do) on defense. Actually, two days is probably enough to learn that. Expect a good, if not great, performance from Favre this week.
NOT SO GOOD MATCH UPS
Julius Jones vs. Cardinals defense: The Seattle running game is essentially non-existent these days. As you’ll eventually read below, Julius Jones has been so inconsistent this season that it’s virtually impossible to start him in any fantasy lineup unless you’re desperate. Let me help out those few desperate owners who might be wavering on a decision whether to use him this week or not. Don’t. The Seahawks rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 84.5 a contest. The Cardinals own the league’s third ranked run defense. Jones has rushed for over 100 yards just once this season (Week 1 against the Rams) and hasn’t gained more than 56 yards on the ground since Week 3. Those numbers should help make your decision an easy one.
Mike Sims-Walker vs. Jets defense: The sleeper of the year (at least at the WR position) came up big against the Chiefs last week after being held to nine yards receiving two weeks ago at Tennessee. Sims-Walker caught 6 passes for 147 yards and a score but this week faces the league’s best shutdown corner, Darrelle Revis. I wouldn’t expect Sims-Walker to be held to nine yards receiving again but I also wouldn’t expect any more than 50 through the air. If that’s worth a start at WR to you then go right ahead and start him, but I would seek better options.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH
Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: Cassel had one of his best games of this season last week against the shaky Jaguars defense, throwing for 262 yards and two touchdowns, both to the newly acquired Chris Chambers. Is it a coincidence that Cassel had his best game of the year in Chambers’ first game with the team? Maybe, maybe not. If you’re in need of a second quarterback though it might be worth a gamble to pick up Cassel and find out. Granted, until Kansas City fixes their offensive line, Cassel won’t play as well as he could no matter who his receivers are.
Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: Since being reinserted into the starting QB role for San Francisco in Week 7 Smith is quietly averaging almost as many fantasy points as Donovan McNabb has this season. He threw a couple of costly picks last week against the Titans but otherwise was solid, throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns. He’s got a favorite target in Vernon Davis who has put up two monster games in the three games since Smith has taken over. It’s entirely possible that Smith will be a solid QB2 the rest of the way so scoop him up if he’s available in your league.
Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: What a headache Julius Jones has been for fantasy owners this season. He gets a great match up against a poor Lions defense last week and only manages 36 yards and a score on 16 carries. With Edgerrin James now out of the picture in Seattle you would think Jones would be poised to put up some numbers against Detroit. Well in the end he actually didthrough the air. Jones hauled in six catches for 78 yards in addition to his ground work. The Seahawks running game is so inconsistent (and really not that great even when it’s clicking) that it’s almost impossible to tell when Jones will be worth playing. Look elsewhere for RB help.
Chris Chambers, WR, Chiefs: One week after being cut loose by the Chargers, Chambers made a big splash in his debut as a Chief, catching three passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns. Chambers made all of his noise in the fourth quarter when he grabbed two of his three catches and both of his touchdowns, including a 54-yarder. He had just nine catches, 122 yards and one touchdown in seven games with the Chargers this season so it’s possible this performance was just a fluke. It’s also possible that he and Matt Cassel could click and put up some fantasy points together. Like I suggested with Cassel, Chambers could be worth the gamble if you need another WR. Chiefs play the Raiders this week.
Greg Olsen, TE, Bears: Olsen’s disappointing first half has caused some fantasy owners to abandon the much-hyped tight end. Those of us who stuck it out with Olsen were rewarded with a five catch, 71 yard and three touchdown performance last week against the Cardinals — by far Olsen’s best of the 2009 season. If he was dropped in your league, pick him up as this could be a sign that Jay Cutler and the Bears have figured out to use him a bit more, though Chicago does face much tougher pass defenses in the next few weeks.
Teams on bye this week: Houston, New York Giants
Kyle Mulligan is a contributing sports writer for the Observer. He welcomes your feedback and can be reached at kjmulli@gmail.com.