Mulligan’s Fantasy Football Forecast, Week 7
Well it looks like the 2007 Patriots are back. Okay, so that’s probably not completely true but Tom Brady and company put on quite the show in the middle of a snowstorm in New England last week, albeit against the woeful Titans.
Owners who drafted Tom Brady early in their fantasy drafts have been waiting for this kind of performance all season, and they were rewarded handsomely on Sunday. Randy Moss owners were also rewarded with his best game of the season; same goes for Wes Welker owners. Yeah, the Patriots sure looked like they had it going on but I would caution that, again, the big performance came against the Titans, who made David Garrard look like Peyton Manning earlier this season.
It’s certainly a great sign that Brady was able to put up those numbers, but he won’t get to face such a banged-up defense every week. Actually, come to think of it, New England plays Tampa Bay this week and then Miami after their bye week. Those look like two favorable match ups for Tom Brady heading into his showdown with Peyton Manning in Week 10.
So scratch all that “caution” jibber-jabber I just spewed and start Tom Brady with no worries in the next few weeks. If he can pick apart Tampa Bay and Miami, like he probably should, then we’ll know he’s back for sure.
GOOD MATCH UPS
Eli Manning vs. Cardinals defense: On paper, this is a great match up for Eli and the Giants passing game. The Cardinals are giving up the second most passing yards per game in the NFL; only the terrible Titans passing defense is worse. This game will be a good opportunity for Eli to get back on track after a sub-par performance against the Saints last week when he completed just 45 percent of his passes.
DeAngelo Williams vs. Bills defense: The Bills defense has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last four games (Pierre Thomas-126, Ronnie Brown-115, Jamal Lewis-117, and Thomas Jones-210). They’re allowing an NFL-worst 5.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers and giving up an average of 181 yards per game on the ground, also an NFL-worst. Williams is coming off his best game of the season in which he torched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 152 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Look for him to keep the momentum going this week because after he faces the league’s worst run defense, Williams will take on the league’s best, the Arizona Cardinals, in Week 8.
NOT SO GOOD MATCH UPS
Brandon Jacobs vs. Cardinals defense: While teammate Eli gets a great match up against the Cards this week, Jacobs’ match up is less than stellar. The Cardinals run defense has held great runners like Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore and Steve Slaton in check this season. That’s partially because they get killed through the air but don’t think that’s the only reason; their run defense is legit. Arizona is allowing just 2.8 yards per carry to opposing runners, best in the NFL by a whopping half yard. While a running back with good hands can be an effective fantasy player via the passing game against the Cards, Jacobs is not one of those backs. Don’t expect him to be much of a factor this week, in what should be another high-scoring game for the Giants.
Pierre Thomas vs. Dolphins defense: I hesitate to say anyone against the Dolphins defense is a bad match up because I know how weak their secondary is. But, as bad as their secondary has been, Miami’s run defense has played quite well (and like the Cardinals, part of that could have to do with their poor pass defense). The Dolphins rank fifth in the league, giving up just 3.4 yards per carry, while allowing just 76 total yards per game on the ground (third best in the NFL). Now, if the Saints can get Thomas involved in the passing game, anything can happen. But Thomas has just five catches all season. Mike Bell is the goal line back in New Orleans, which does not bode well for Thomas owners in touchdown-heavy leagues. I would bench Thomas in favor of Bell in those touchdown-heavy leagues but play Thomas in PPR leagues and hope the Saints find a way to get the ball in his hands. If he can get a couple passes thrown his way and get into that Miami secondary, Thomas will have a good chance at making a big play.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH
Vince Young, QB, Titans: Thanks to Kerry Collins’ ineptitude and the Titans’ disaster of a season, Vince Young has seen some playing time in Tennessee’s last two games. Though he hasn’t done much with that playing time, Young’s chances of being inserted as the Titans starting quarterback are increasing with each passing day. The Titans have a bye this week but I wouldn’t be surprised to see VY starting for Tennessee against the Jaguars in Week 8.
Mike Bell, RB, Saints: Mike Bell isn’t going to get you a ton of yardage but if you’re in a touchdown heavy league, Bell is a solid flex play most weeks. Week 7 against the Dolphins could be one of those weeks.
Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: Like Bell, Hightower isn’t going to get you a ton of yardage; at least not in the running game. His value comes from the passing game in PPR leagues. Hightower has caught at least three passes in every game so far this season and he gets most of the goal line opportunities as well. His yards per carry is not good at all (3.1) which could threaten the number of carries he gets going forward but for now he should be owned in all PPR leagues.
Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings: Rice looks like he gets better and better each week and Brett Favre seems to trust him more with every catch. He had his best game of the season last week against the Ravens, hauling in six catches for 176 yards. He’ll face a much tougher pass defense this week in the Steelers but he should be owned in just about every league imaginable.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: The one Giants wide receiver that most people thought would emerge as the best fantasy option this season is starting to turn it up a notch. Nicks caught five passes for 114 yards and a touchdown against the Saints last week and the game marks the third straight in which Nicks has caught a touchdown. The Giants draw Arizona and their soft pass defense this week, making Nicks a good WR3/flex play if you need one.
Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars: In standard Yahoo! Leagues, guess who is second in fantasy points per game at the wide receiver position? Yup, Mike Sims-Walker. Maybe even more shocking is that he’s still available in 15% of those Yahoo! leagues. I think it goes without saying that he should be owned in every league at this point. If he’s somehow available in yours, pick him up ASAP. He gets a golden match up against the depleted Titans secondary in Week 8.
Zach Miller, TE, Raiders: I think we can all agree that, despite their win on Sunday over the Eagles, the Raiders are one of the saddest teams in football. But there is at least one bright spot for Oakland and his name is Zach Miller. Miller is currently the 10th ranked tight end in standard leagues, having a better season than bigger names like Jason Witten, Greg Olsen and Chris Cooley. He’s really the Raiders only consistent option in the passing game and is available in over 50% of Yahoo! leagues. Miller isn’t exactly a model of consistency but, considering the team he plays for, the fact that he scores any fantasy points at all is impressive.
Teams on bye this week: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee
Kyle Mulligan is a contributing sports writer for the Observer. He welcomes your feedback and can be reached at kjmulli@gmail.com.