Mulligan’s Fantasy Football Forecast, Week 5
Last week I implored owners of Matt Forte and Steve Slaton to remain patient with their slow starts and if those owners happened to listen, they were rewarded. Forte and Slaton each had their best games of the season to this point and will surely have bigger and better ones to come.
So this time around, I’d like to give you a couple players off to slow starts who are highly unlikely to turn it around. And I’ll start with a guy I drafted on both of my fantasy teams this season, Raiders running back Darren McFadden. McFadden had a so-so start to his season against the Chargers in Week 1, rushing for 68 yards and catching two passes for 25 yards.
Since then it’s been downhill, and it’s been a steep decline. It came to a head last week when McFadden had what appeared to be a very favorable match-up against an awful Texans run defense and was actually able to manage NEGATIVE yardage on the ground. Now there’s news that he’ll miss a few weeks with an injury. I’ve dropped him in both of my leagues and if you own him, you should follow suit.
The other guy I wouldn’t want any part of this season is Beanie Wells. I know a lot of people were high on him coming into this season, but the bottom line is that the Cardinals are a passing team, and Tim Hightower is the passing-down running back in Arizona. Beanie’s fumbling problems in Week 2 have left his coaches a bit concerned and he only got two carries against a poor Colts run defense in Week 3.
You may not have to drop Beanie, however, since it’s still early and someone might want to take a chance on him. Call up that guy in your league who liked him at the draft and see if you can get something for him. If not, there are likely better options at running back on your league’s waiver wire.
GOOD MATCH UPS
Ronnie Brown vs. Jets defense: The Dolphins running attack has been unbelievable so far this season, thanks in large part to the wildcat formation. As a team, Miami has averaged over 183 rushing yards per game this season, by far the most in the NFL, and Ronnie Brown himself is averaging 92 yards per game on the ground. The Jets pass defense is much better than their run defense so expect Brown to again be the focus of the Dolphins offensive attack and, although he didn’t have any last week, he’s usually a good bet to catch a couple of passes as well.
Peyton Manning vs. Titans defense: It’s hard to tell exactly why the Titans pass defense is as bad as it is. Sure, they’ve been bitten with a couple of injuries in their secondary, but good teams are supposed to find ways to overcome injuries aren’t they? Either way, the fact that Tennessee has the worst pass defense in the NFL through the first four weeks is all you need to know about Peyton Manning’s match up this week. Anytime you can play someone who is a part of the best passing offense in the NFL against the worst passing defense, you do it.
NOT SO GOOD MATCH UPS
Joseph Addai vs. Titans defense: Piggybacking off of that Colts-Titans game, I think owners need to sit Joseph Addai this week. As I mentioned above, Manning should have a field day against the Tennessee defense. There’s also Addai poor history against Tennessee to consider. In five career games against the Titans, Addai has averaged just 46 rushing yards per game and has just one rushing touchdown. He has yet to have a great game this season and I don’t expect that his first one will come this week. Good news for Addai owners is that the Colts draw the Rams and Texans in two of their next three games so they have that going for them, which is nice.
Zach Miller vs. Giants defense: Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell has been simply awful so far this season and this week he gets to lead his Oakland offense against the best pass defense in the league, the New York Giants. Naturally, that’s not good news for owners of one of the league’s better tight ends, Zach Miller. Look for the Giants defense to pay a lot of attention to Miller, who is tied for the team lead in catches.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH
David Garrard, QB, Jaguars: As you’re probably aware by now, the Titans pass defense is bad, and David Garrard took full advantage of his match up against them last week. Garrard threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns last week and through the first four weeks of the season is the eighth ranked QB in standard fantasy leagues. He’s not going to be able to face the Titans every week, unfortunately, but he’s playing well enough right now that he should not be available in any leagues.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: Okay, try and keep up with me here. Mendenhall has a bad week of practice two weeks ago. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t like Mendenhall’s lack of focus, so Mendenhall gets zero carries Week 3 against the Bengals. Then Willie Parker gets injured. Mendenhall has a great week of practice last week and Sunday night against the Chargers runs for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Quite the 180 degree turn. If Willie Parker is out again this week, Mendenhall gets a very good match up against the Lions so grab him if you need a RB.
Jerome Harrison, RB, Browns: With Jamal Lewis and James Davis sidelined, Harrison went for 121 yards rushing and 31 yards receiving against the Bengals last week. The Brows travel to Buffalo this week to play the Bills, and we all know what Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins rushing attack did to them last week. If Jamal Lewis is out again, Harrison is a solid play this week.
Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars: A few weeks ago when Sims-Walker busted out for 106 yards and a score against the Cardinals, I cautioned everyone to temper their expectations for him. Well, since then Sims-Walker has continued to impress and had his finest game of the season last week against the Titans. Shows what I know. Sims-Walker gets great match ups in the coming weeks against teams like the Seahawks, Rams, Titans, and Chiefs (in that order). So go ahead and pick him up if he’s still available.
Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Browns: Massaquoi (don’t try pronouncing it) put up huge numbers against the Bengals last week, grabbing eight catches for 148 yards. The Browns get the Bills this week and their depleted secondary, which is good news for Derek Anderson and Massaquoi. If you need a third WR or a flex player, you could do worse than Massaquoi for this week.
Teams on bye this week: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Kyle Mulligan is a contributing sports writer for the Observer. He welcomes your feedback and can be reached at kjmulli@gmail.com.