Mulligan’s Fantasy Football Forecast, Week 4
People always tell you to remain patient in life. Patience is a virtue, or something like that. I’m betting that whoever came up with that saying probably didn’t play a lot of fantasy football.
It’s pretty hard to remain patient with key players on your fantasy teams, especially if your team gets off to a slow start. Nobody likes to start 0-3, or even 1-2 this much is obvious. But if you find yourself with larger numbers in the loss column than the win column, how do you remain patient with players like Matt Forte or Steve Slaton who you likely spent a first round draft pick on?
Forte has been awful, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and zero touchdowns this season. Slaton (also with zero touchdowns) has just 127 yards rushing through three games, 76 of which came last week against Jacksonville. The only thing making either of these two even the least bit worthwhile in PPR leagues is their pass catching ability.
Those numbers can be looked at optimistically, believe it or not. Both Forte and Slaton have played some of the toughest run defenses in football to start their seasons. Both men also had their best games of the young season last week something I see as a sign of things to come.
So don’t give up on your struggling top picks just yet. Fantasy football is a fickle game and the season is young.
GOOD MATCH UPS
Jay Cutler vs. Lions defense: The Lions defense helped make Washington’s Jason Campbell look like Peyton Manning on Sunday, allowing Campbell to throw for 340 yards and two scores. That should be music to the ears of Jay Cutler owners. After a stinker of a debut for the Bears in Week 1 against the Packers, Cutler has played very well in his last two games against the Steelers and Seahawks. He completed 74 percent of his passes for 483 yards and a 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Cutler and his fantasy owners should be licking their chops this week.
Julius Jones vs. Colts defense: As long as Matt Hasselbeck is out for the Seahawks, Jones will remain a very important cog in the Seattle offensive attack. That means owners of Jones should expect big things out of him this week as he and the Seahawks go up against one of the league’s weaker run defenses in Indianapolis. The Colts are giving up over 125 yards rushing per game this season. If Jones’ nice game against the Bears last week showed anything, it’s that he’s a capable, though inconsistent, running back and that his Week 1 performance wasn’t a fluke. Expect a good game from Julius this week.
NOT SO GOOD MATCH UPS
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Titans defense: Last week I suggested not using Thomas Jones against the Tennessee defense and if you took my advice, you did a good thing. Jones was held to just 20 yards on 14 carries and the entire Jets team averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. That’s no good. MoJo is an elite running back so I would suspect he’d have better production, but I don’t expect typical MoJo numbers. He will still get you some points through the passing game however so if you’re In a PPR league, you should survive this match up.
Roy Williams vs. Broncos defense: The Broncos are giving up just 236 yards per game through the air, second in the NFL to the New York Giants 124 per game through the air. It helps that they have played poor offenses like the Raiders and Browns but either way, their defense has played well. Roy has had two solid games and one stinker against the Giants on the season. He has just eight total catches on the year, something to be concerned about if you’re a Roy Williams owner. Don’t expect him to add much to that total against Champ Bailey and the Broncos defense this week.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH
Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins: With a big stat line against the Lions last week, Campbell is quietly off to a nice start this season. He’s got more fantasy points than fellow quarterbacks Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan and he gets a good match up against the Buccaneers this week, so he should be able to keep the fantasy points coming. You could do worse with your backup QB position.
Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins: Chad Pennington’s season appears that it may be over with the shoulder injury he suffered Sunday against the Chargers. That means Michigan’s Chad Henne will be Miami’s QB the rest of the way should he prove capable. However, until he does prove himself, I would leave him on the waiver wire.
Glenn Coffee, RB, 49ers: Another beneficiary of an injury this week, Glenn Coffee will get the start in San Francisco at running back should Frank Gore not be able to go (and it sounds like he won’t be able to). Coffee gets a good match up against the Rams defense and is a solid flex play this week.
Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins run game has basically been their entire offense this season, averaging over 161 yards per game on the ground (3rd in the NFL) and with Chad Pennington being lost for the season, that doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon. Ricky Williams has more fantasy points than guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner so far this season, so if he’s available in your league you might want to scoop him up.
Johnny Knox, WR, Bears: The Bears offense played well last week and gets a great match up this week against the Lions. Knox had his worst game of the season last week but still managed to grab a touchdown. If you need a WR this week, Knox makes for a good pickup.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts: Garcon played his best game of the season against the Cardinals on Sunday, catching 3 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. He’s got more points than Anquan Boldin for the season but has a below average match up against the Seahawks this week. He’s a decent pickup but I wouldn’t start him this week.
Teams on bye this week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia
Kyle Mulligan is a contributing sports writer for the Observer. He welcomes your feedback and can be reached at kjmulli@gmail.com.