Workforce study: Area job market strong and growing
According to a recently-released study, the southwest Florida workforce is beginning to stabilize.
Director of the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University Christopher Westley says the sixth annual Southwest Florida Workforce Overview Study really underscores that we have a dynamic economy.
“While the construction industry continues to recover from the recession and was the fastest growth industry from 2013 to 2017 with an increase of over 52 percent, both the accommodation and food services and retail trade have grown immensely,” Dr. Aysegul Timur, dean of the Johnson School of Business at Hodges University, said in a prepared statement.
“The growth can be attributed to an increasing population in the region,” she said. “Along with increases in tourism as well.”
For the labor force, Westley said this means the low gaps reflect how busy things are at this stage of the business cycle.
Simply put, “If someone needs a job, there is someone hiring right now and there is a demand.”
The study, conducted by Workforce Now, analyzed industries, occupations, employment gaps and projected job growth in the region.
Researchers divided the study into three major sections including historic, current, and projected employment by industry; employment gaps by occupation as of summer 2018, and projected employment demand by occupation.
Workforce Now is a research enterprise that studies the regional workforce and consists of researchers from Florida Gulf Coast University, Hodges University and Florida SouthWestern State College.
“The goal of this report is to promote a more efficient allocation of scarce educational resources in our region to address its workforce needs,” Dr. Debbie Psihountas, dean of the School of Business and Technology at FSW, said in a statement. “But knowing where to direct these resources can be difficult in a dynamic market.”
Westley also said one of the study’s most significant findings is that the region is no longer experiencing a shortage of registered nurses. According to the study, RNs as an industry fell from the employment gap list completely.
This is noteworthy because it is the first time since researchers began conducting the study that it has gone down to zero.
While health care and social assistance remains one of the top employment industries in southwest Florida, another key takeaway from the study is that for the first time in three years, health care workers were not included on the employment gap list.
Another significant finding is that three industries that made the list in 2015 have since dropped out.
“Taken together, this suggests a labor market that is pretty fluid and actually working,” Westley said. “So, a gap in Year 1 leads to an upward pressure on wages in Year 2 that signals to workers and educators what the needs are. Eventually, this leads to a diminished gap in Year 3.”
Communications director of CareerSource Southwest Florida Jim Wall doesn’t expect the demand for medical professionals to go away anytime soon.
“Even though baby boomers are entering assisted living facilities, they will want to continue to live a healthy life and maintain their continuum of care,” he said. “This could be basic or critical, but you receive it in your community, and you need workers (like certified nursing assistants) to give that care.”
In southwest Florida, Wall says the hospitality and tourism industry has traditionally been the leader in economic development and job growth.
“We have an economy that is largely driven by the demand for retirement and tourism,” Westley said. “That then dictates what industries and firms emerge around those demands.”
However, since southwest Florida is very well-suited for both of these industries, Westley said that means they are fairly narrow.
He expects that that should change as we grow in the next decade or two.
“We are a lot less diversified during season,” Westley explained. “That means that many of the jobs we find in the report reflect those kinds of industries. And many don’t require a tremendous amount of training to get the jobs.”
Traditionally, southwest Florida has relied heavily on hospitality and tourism, and, according to Wall, there is normally a big spike in hiring in the fall for the season.
“We’re not seeing huge layoffs in the spring,” Wall said. “Traditionally, right after the first of the year and Easter, there is an exit and downsizing in the workforce. We are not seeing that.”
Wall also pointed out that we haven’t been seeing the unemployment rate tick up in August and September.
“It’s under four-percent,” Wall said. “This is really full employment.”
Westley agreed.
“It means the labor market is really heating up,” he said. “The actual size of the largest gaps is pretty low compared to previous years and that reflects the business cycle. Labor is very scarce. The employment rate is quite low.”
The study also found that the economic expansion is now the second longest on record and employment and unemployment rates in the region have reached levels associated with their usual long-term values.
Wall said we need to consider that the top-10 long-term growth occupations are for the most part low skill/low wage occupations.
“The increasing housing costs and costs of recruiting and retaining entry level employees to support service industries will continue to be a challenge,” he said.
As far as this relates to Cape Coral specifically, Wall said this gives the city an opportunity to create affordable workforce housing.
“We’ve seen the housing market cost increasing and wages are still fairly stagnant,” he said. “Cape Coral has an opportunity to work with developers to establish communities and housing that are still affordable.”
For example, if the Cape has an aggressive workforce housing plan, “It might be a good economic driver,” Wall said. “This means people will spend that money in their community.”